When Kabul first fell, one of our first reactions was to consider the fallout. What would these actions communicate to the nation’s enemies and allies? When we abandon our allies in places like Afghanistan, this reflects poorly on the United States. Our allies in Taiwan, who depend on the United States for the continued protection and freedom, have to view this as a piece of bad news.
They have to be wondering how long it will be before they are abandoned as well and that is a fair assessment to make. These countries cannot sit back and wait to be caught flat-footed by the next abandonment. China’s Xi Jinping is currently vowing to reunify the nation of Taiwan, by any means necessary. This has to be terrifying for any resident.
“Solving the Taiwan question and realising the complete reunification of the motherland are the unswerving historical tasks of the Chinese Communist Party and the common aspiration of all Chinese people,” said Xi. The Chinese state media seized on the Afghanistan screw up and they are already twisting the screws. Per the Global Times:
“How Washington abandoned the Kabul regime particularly shocked some in Asia, including the island of Taiwan. Taiwan is the region that relies on the protection of the US the most in Asia, and the island’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have made Taiwan go further and further down this abnormal path. The situation in Afghanistan suddenly saw a radical change after the country was abandoned by the US. And Washington just left despite the worsening situation in Kabul. Is this some kind of omen of Taiwan’s future fate?
Tsai Ing-wen, who had sent a message of condolence to the US president for the death of his dog, did not mention even a word about the change in the situation in Afghanistan. Other DPP politicians as well as the media that tilt toward the DPP downplayed the shocking change as well. But they must have been nervous and feel an ominous presentiment. They must have known better in secret that the US is not reliable.”
This is not the worst of it, either. It is believed that a cross-Straits war is essentially inevitable:
“Once a cross-Straits war breaks out while the mainland seizes the island with forces, the US would have to have a much greater determination than it had for Afghanistan, Syria, and Vietnam if it wants to interfere…
The DPP authorities need to keep a sober head, and the secessionist forces should reserve the ability to wake up from their dreams. From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and the US military won’t come to help. As a result, the DPP authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane.”
The Global Times made this same point in a different recent piece:
“Yesterday’s Saigon, today’s Afghanistan, and tomorrow’s Taiwan?” read some online posts by internet users in the island of Taiwan, implying that the so-called alliance that Taiwan has forged with the US is nothing but an empty promise that will eventually “leave the Taiwan people hurting alone.”…
“Those who have a clear mind should understand that Taiwan residents can’t rely on the US. However, given the ideology-driven influence, some observers may see the situation in the island as being different from that in Afghanistan, but there’s one thing in common – America’s empty promise,” Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Monday.”
Does this mean that China has plans of invading anytime soon? We doubt it. The Global Times is a state propaganda rag that is required to publish things like this. This is a good way to make sure that Taiwan’s fighting spirit is being weakened in the meantime, though.