Is Inflation Actually Slowing? July Numbers Seem to Indicate as Much

Naiyana Somchitkaeo /

As both you and your wallet know, inflation has been climbing at a rather steady rate basically since Democratic President Joe Biden took office in January 2021. As such, it’s been one of the many issues the American people have had with his leadership. And naturally, his approval rating has dropped significantly as a result.

But now, thanks to July reports and numbers, both Biden and most of us can breathe a little easier.

According to most reports, it seems inflation may actually be slowing some. In fact, the Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded current inflation rates at about 8.5 percent, which is down from the 9.1 percent it was recorded in June. That number was the highest inflation rate the nation had seen since November of 1981.

Now, it seems that the June figure may be the peak of the price surge we’ve been experiencing for months on end.

What that means for consumers is that prices have dropped for things like clothing, used cars, and fuel. I’m sure you’ve noticed the decrease in price at the gas pump. In June, when inflation was at its highest, the average gallon of regular unleaded gasoline cost around $5.02 nationally. But now, in most places, it’s a little over $4.

Of course, those numbers are a bit higher in higher-priced areas such as California. But the rate is the same. Gas that used to cost $6.44 a gallon is now around $5.40.

Now, to be sure, this isn’t just due to inflation rates dropping. In addition, Biden finally chose the American people first and released a strategic reserve of crude oil supplies. This naturally has made oil supplies more readily available here in the States. And as Russia’s war against Ukraine grows colder, the threat of harsh sanctions against Russia’s oil supplies has lessened, reducing fears and worldwide prices.

As far as other consumer goods are concerned, prices have dropped on plenty of other things, from footwear and apparel to airline fares, appliances, and used vehicles.

What hasn’t gone down is the rate of inflation on most food essentials and rent.

The July inflation report, which came out on Wednesday, indicated that while the milk price had stayed relatively the same throughout the month, the same cannot be said for things like bread and eggs. Of course, this is also related to Russia’s war with Ukraine. Here, pressure on world grain supplies has upped bread prices, and an avian flu outbreak has put a strain on most poultry products and eggs.

When it comes to housing, costs are still rising, as well. From June to July, prices rose another 0.5 percent, making a 5.7 percent rise in total over the last twelve months.

However, as indicated earlier, it seems the worst of the inflation might be over. And national experts seem to agree. According to Moody’s Analytics, a research and forecasting firm, the inflation rate is likely to continue dropping at a steady pace, down to about 6.5 percent by the end of the year.

By sometime in 2024, the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation rate goal should be achieved. Of course, this depends on things continuing to run smoothly here and worldwide. This prediction will likely fail if the fallout from Russia’s war gets out of hand or the pandemic makes a comeback.

Additionally, it is worth noting that what the central bank/federal reserve will have to do to restore price stability in the U.S. in the coming years may cause a recession, according to principal and chief economist Joseph Brusuelas of the accounting firm RSM. The Fed will have to continue to increase rates to prevent a wage spiral and reigniting inflation pressures, as well as cool the labor market.

In any case, it seems things are getting better financially in the United States, which has to be a relief for failed president Joe Biden. If things continue to get better, perhaps his approval rating will, too. Although, I doubt it will go up enough to prevent a complete GOP takeover come November or his ousting come 2024.