As tensions between the US and China escalate in the South China Sea, the Biden administration is bolstering its partnership with the Philippines – a crucial ally in countering Beijing’s aggressive expansionism. Last weekend, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Manila to reaffirm America’s unwavering commitment to regional stability and announce significant investments in the bilateral defense cooperation.
Austin’s visit comes amidst heightened concerns following recent incidents where Chinese Coast Guards harassed Filipino supply vessels near disputed territories. These provocations prompted Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to draw a bold red line’ warning Beijing against any acts of hostility. However, during a defense summit in Singapore shortly thereafter, Austin sidestepped questions regarding specific actions if Manila faced hostilities from China, reiterating instead that the US remains committed to honoring its ironclad Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) obligations.
Despite these assurances, anxieties persist given the precarious balance of power in Southeast Asia. As noted by a high-ranking US defense official prior to Austin’s latest trip, “there’s no greater example of our progress in the Indo-Pacific than the Philippines.” Indeed, Manila has rapidly shifted towards strengthening relations with Washington, reversing course from previous administrations’ coziness with Beijing.
During Austin’s meeting with his Philippine counterpart, concrete steps were outlined to fortify joint defenses through increased exercises, intelligence-sharing agreements, and expanded training programs. Notably, the US pledged $500 million in extended-security assistance aimed at modernizing the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Furthermore, plans are underway to enhance AFP capabilities via enhanced logistics coordination and strategic planning alongside allies Japan and Australia.
Washington has earmarked substantial funding ($128M FY25 budget request) for upgrading facilities within newly-accessed Philippine military installations – underscoring sustained investment commitments beyond mere rhetoric. Moreover, Austin confirmed ongoing efforts to finalize secure info-exchange protocols by yearend, significantly enhancing Manila’s surveillance capacities vis-a-vis potential threats emanating from mainland China.
Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Eduardo Gerardo C. Teodoro hailed the package deal as providing “tremendous boosts…to establishing [the] credible deterrent[s]” essential to counteract extraterritorial incursions. Meanwhile, Antonio Guterres-backed international arbitration verdicts affirming Manila’s sovereignty claims seem increasingly distant memories amid continued Sino-Filipino brinksmanship around Scarborough Shoal outposts.
Gregory B. Poling, expert analyst specializing in ASEAN geopolitics, cautions that either parties might yet navigate treacherous shoals en route to normalization or stumble headfirst into uncharted crisis zones. Echoes of Cold-War era proxy rivalries loom large here; thus far, however, restraint appears to prevail. For instance, days preceding Austin’s arrival saw successful replenishment operations sans major altercations – developments welcomed by Blinken (“we’re pleased”), emphasizing the imperative nature of sustaining peaceful norms going forward (“it’s very important”).
Yet lingering doubts surrounding future compliance cast shadows across the horizon. Will history repeat itself? Or can trust-building initiatives forestall renewed conflagrations along contested maritime borders? Only time shall tell. One certainty exists nonetheless: Washington must maintain vigilance lest Beijing exploit perceived vulnerabilities among smaller neighbors.